Can Rudy Giuliani win the general election? I have serious doubts. Many Republicans crow that if Hillary Clinton is the Democrat nominee, she will energize the conservative base and unite all Republicans in opposition to her. Could the same be said of Giuliani and the liberal Democrat base? I think it could. If Giuliani receives the nomination, for every story about “broken windows” policing and reduced crime rates, there will be others about “stop and frisk” and police brutality. We will be forced to relive the travesty of the police assault on Abner Louima, and the tragedy of the accidental shooting of Amadou Diallo. It will be hard for black Americans to see how President Giuliani will improve their lives or care about their issues. Democrats will not have to spend a penny to retain their monopoly on the the African-American vote. Hillary Clinton will get unquestioning and active support from a demographic group that Republicans had begun to make inroads with.
Next, civil libertarians on the extreme left will provoked to alarm as yet unheard during the Bush administration. If you thought the left was irrational in their claims of “lost liberty” now , just wait for a Giuliani administration. No matter how reasonable his proposals, there will be a shrieking cry of doom from the likes of the ACLU. Certainly, these groups will be opposed to any Republican nominee, but their opposition to Giuliani will be active and energized. Giuliani’s liberal views on social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control will not save him here. He will not win friends from the left. His liberal positions will not demoralize or neutralize the Clinton cadres. They will portray him as dark, dangerous, and prone to authoritarianism.
Don’t expect national security to save the day either. The improving situation in Iraq will allow Hillary Clinton to moderate her stance on troop withdrawals. As the general election gets underway she will begin to sound increasingly sensible on national security issues. We Republicans will know that this is a charade. We will remember her equivocations, vacillations, and pandering to the extreme advocates of American defeat in her party. The mainstream media, however, will emphasize her nuanced positions and present them as the best option in a complex world.
While all of this happens, the Republican base will be divided and demoralized by a Giuliani nomination. Even if social conservatives do not put forward a third party candidate, they will be missing from the three-legged stool of the conservative coalition. The Republican grassroots will be unenthusiastic and unlikely to participate in the vast get out the vote efforts that drove President Bush over the top in the final campaign days of 2004. While conservatives stay home in the fall, Democrat activists will be on the street, marshaling their base to the polls, and convincing independents to side with Hilary.
Republicans need a solid conservative that can unite the base and appeal to independents. This is an obvious and easy statement to make, but it is the simple truth. Most Americans, including African-Americans, lean toward conservatism on social issues. They don’t support unrestricted abortion, they are not in favor of redefining marriage, and they want the right to bear arms in the defense of their homes and families. What they want is a President that can speak to them, inspire them, and who will listen to the concerns of everyday people. They want compassionate conservatism. A conservatism that cares about the poor and wants to lift them up. A conservatism that cares about the condition of the planet, but doesn’t use this issue to stifle economic growth. The American people will respond to the message of a candidate like Mike Huckabee.
